Climate Change

Scientists have recently coined a term for the unique geological era in which we are living, the “anthropocene,” an epoch in which civilization itself has significantly and unmistakably altered the atmosphere through the development of agriculture and industry. Indeed, the makeup of the atmosphere has changed. Although in the past there have been large fluctuations in carbon dioxide concentrations between interglacial periods, the time frame in which the recent increase has been occurring is much shorter, meaning that the resulting changes in climate will happen at a rate unprecedented in human history.

In preindustrial times, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was around 280 ppm (parts per million).[i] Many climate scientists assert that the safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is below 350 ppm, which we have already surpassed, as current levels are around 390 ppm.[ii] Climate scientists warn that if the global temperature increases by another two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), catastrophic and irreversible damages could be triggered. At our current rate of warming, we could reach that two degree tipping point by 2050.[iii] Never has the need for decisive action to mitigate climate change been more urgent, as the signs of climate change are becoming more apparent every day.

Recent extreme weather and natural disasters are a preview of what is likely to happen increasingly going forward. In the last year, China experienced its worst drought in over sixty years, and millions of people, livestock, and hectares of agricultural land were devastated.[iv] In 2010, two million square kilometers of land in Eastern Europe and Russia were scorched by drought in the hottest summer in five hundred years. A flood the size of Germany and France engulfed Queensland, Australia in what has been called the worst natural disaster in the country’s history. 

This year in the United States, the Mississippi River and its tributaries have reached record levels, Arizona and New Mexico have battled enormous wildfires, Missouri struggles to rebuild after a tornado that killed over one hundred thirty people, and Texas is in its eighth year of ‘exceptional drought’ recorded in the last twelve years.[v] Although it can be difficult to directly link these disasters to the effects of climate change, there is increasing evidence for the link, and they certainly provide a preview of what is to come on a hotter planet. As Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chief of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),  said recently, “We are sure that the kinds of events that we've seen recently are likely to become much more frequent and much more severe.'' [vi]          

The Arctic permafrost is only one source of troublesome melting. According to a NASA report released this year, the polar ice caps are deteriorating at rates that exceed the 2007 projections of the IPCC. Past rates of melting were alarming enough: in the last twenty years, ice cap melting averaged 475 billion metric tons per year. Current rates of melting would result in an estimated 5.9 inch rise in sea levels by 2050, and the melt rate is expected to increase in the future, meaning that seas are likely to rise well beyond 5.9 inches. A recent study found that the seas along the Atlantic coast of the United States are rising at their fastest rate in over 2,100 years. The scientists authoring the study linked this acceleration in sea rising to higher temperatures due to climate change.[ix] Norfolk, VA, is just one example of a coastal community that is already experiencing the impact of these higher seas. Like many cities, it was built on filled-in marshland, and is now compacting and sinking. This, in combination with sea levels that have risen 14.5 inches since 1930, is resulting in constant flooding, which causes major problems with infrastructure and plummeting housing prices, even as the city tries to adapt by raising roadways.[x] Rising sea levels could eventually completely submerge low-lying coastal areas, destroy important ecosystems, and displace millions of people.

Indeed, the U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHCR) claims that the humanitarian crises that could be triggered by the effects of climate change have been vastly underestimated, with natural disasters and environmental degradation resulting in geopolitical instability, millions of refugees, and violent conflict over diminishing essential resources such as water, land, and food.[xi] Supporting this view, a recent report in the journal Science observed that climate change is already leading to significantly lower crop yields.

Climate change has prompted serious concerns about food availability, according to Oxfam and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Unfavorable conditions for growing crops such as drought and excessive rainfall and extreme weather events such as flooding and tornadoes are expected to get worse. This would be a huge problem even if our population was expected to hold steady, but in fact there will be an estimated two billion more mouths to feed by 2050. The FAO estimates that harvest yields will need to increase by 70% by 2050 in order to feed those people, with a needed annual increase in rice and wheat yields of 1.2 to 1.4%. Recent growth rates in annual yields of rice and wheat have been faltering at 0.6 and 0.7%, which clearly will not be enough to meet predicted demand in forty years.[xii] Oxfam predicts that this future mismatch between supply and demand will result in a doubling of food prices by the year 2030, as well as millions of more people not having enough to eat.[xiii]

We are at a crucial juncture in human history and the stakes for human survival have never been higher. Ignoring climate change and waiting for a “more convenient” time to deal with it will not make it go away. Moreover, it will only be more difficult and expensive to effectively mitigate the consequences of climate change in the future. Local governments must lead the way forward in the face of continued federal inaction. Tompkins County has committed itself to reducing its emissions 80% by 2050, but it will take a sustained effort on the part of citizens and their leaders to achieve this goal. Bringing global emissions down to a safe level for humanity will require all hands on deck if we are to alter our trajectory for the better. Failure is not an option.